CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-09T02:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33873/-1
CME Note: Bright fast halo CME associated with the X1.8 class flare from AR 3848 (N13W08) and a significant eruption marked by an EUV wave, a large area of deep dimming and bright post-eruptive arcades. Associated with this CME there was also a initially slowly developing eruption of a very large filament spanning from N20W15 to N15W55 to the northeast of the Active Region 3848 which started prior to the X flare (~2024-10-08T22:19Z).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T14:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.67
Dst min. in nT: -335
Dst min. time: 2024-10-11T01:00Z
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T10:50Z (-3.0h, +11.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1509.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 1591.26 Acceleration: -5.67585 % Compiled module: CALDAT. Duration in seconds: 117512.41 Duration in days: 1.3600974 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -5.68 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 924.3 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/10/2024 Time: 10:50 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 28.15 hour(s)
Difference: 3.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-10-09T10:37Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy